In the first half of 2021, the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic will gradually normalize, the global demand for home consumer products continues to grow, and the import scale of home appliances in major consumer markets has increased significantly compared with the same period last year. Thanks to the effective response to the epidemic, from the second half of last year to the first half of this year, global home appliance manufacturing orders were concentrated in China, and the share of China's home appliance exports continued to increase. From January to June 2021, China's export of white goods (excluding audiovisual products such as color TVs) was 57.74 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 46.3% over the same period last year and an increase of 43.3% over the same period in 2019. The export scale reached a record high for the same period.

 

　　 While the market brings demand, it also creates new contradictions between supply and demand. In the first half of the year, home appliance foreign trade companies continued to face problems such as fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate, rising raw material prices, out-of-control shipping prices, and shortages of electronic chips. At present, it is the peak season for home appliance export, and the contradiction between shipping and chip supply and demand has led to a backlog of many home appliance foreign trade companies, making it difficult to make orders. The high cost of shipping has forced some European and American orders to return, and some small and medium-sized merchants even choose to abandon the goods directly, increasing the export risk of enterprises. In the second half of the year, the foreign epidemic situation was still fluctuating, but the home demand was bound to decline compared with the first half of the year. According to the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products, nearly half of the exporting companies expressed concern about the export situation in the second half of the year. With the continuous increase of the monthly export base last year and the impact of uncertainties such as maritime logistics, the quarter and month of my country's home appliance exports in the second half of 2021 are expected to continue to narrow year-on-year, and the annual export growth rate will remain flat or lower than the 17% in 2020. , Is about 15%.

 

　　The global home appliance sales recovered steadily in the first half of the year. Import demand in major markets increased sharply. Consumer confidence in major global markets in the first half of the year increased significantly compared with the outbreak of the epidemic, which is positive for the sales of household appliances and other durable consumer goods. Take the United States as an example. Although its consumer confidence index has not recovered to before the epidemic and has continued to fluctuate, it has been out of the trough at the beginning of the epidemic. The recovery trend in markets such as Europe and Japan is even more pronounced, and consumer confidence has clearly rebounded. In the first half of the year, global consulting organizations such as GFK and Euromonitor all predict that global home appliance retail sales will grow by more than 5% year-on-year in 2021.

 

　　 In the first half of 2021, the import scale of the world's major home appliance import markets has increased significantly compared with last year and the same period before the epidemic. January-May 2021. The United States imported US$31.11 billion in home appliances, an increase of 44.1% over the same period last year, and an increase of 24.4% over the same period in 2019, the highest in the same period in history. Similarly, Germany (increased by 32% from the same period last year and 18.1% from 2019), France (increased by 50.5% from the same period last year and 25.7% from 2019) and the United Kingdom (increased by 47.9% from the same period last year and 20.7 from 2019) %) and other EU countries have increased significantly. As the largest home appliance import market in Asia, Japan's home appliance imports from January to May increased by 22.1% year-on-year and 12.7% year-on-year. Russia (imports increased by 34.4% compared to the same period last year), Brazil (38.3%), Argentina (43.1%) and other emerging markets also increased significantly compared with last year.

 

The export scale and growth rate far exceed the historical period in the same period. The continuous increase in the world share. Thanks to the growth of global demand and the stability of China's supply supporting capacity. The monthly export volume in the fourth quarter has exceeded 9 billion U.S. dollars. Entering the first half of 2021, the export scale in the first quarter increased by 67.3% compared with the same period last year. In the second quarter, the export scale of home appliances exceeded 30 billion U.S. dollars. In the second quarter, exports exceeded US$10 billion for three consecutive months.

 

　　 After the global financial crisis, it took nearly 10 years for my country's home appliance export value to go from 40 billion U.S. dollars (2008 export value of 40.8 billion U.S. dollars) to 70 billion U.S. dollars (2018 export value of 75.12 billion U.S. dollars). The average annual growth rate of home appliance exports during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period was 6.8%, and the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” period was 8.1%. In 2020, the export growth rate was 17.7%, and in the first half of 2021, it reached 46.3%. With a high probability of breaking through the 100 billion U.S. dollar mark, the rapid growth of export scale has deviated from the original market trend.

 

　　 Driven by demand, exports of other home appliance markets in the world have also increased to varying degrees. Take Thailand as an example. In the first half of 2021, exports increased by 34% over the same period last year, and South Korea increased by 27.4%. Compared with China’s export growth volume in other markets, China’s home appliance exports have increased their share of world exports, from 25% in 2019 to 27% in 2020. The share of world exports in the first half of 2021 is close to 30%.

 

　　In the first half of the year, exports to Europe and the United States led the growth. The Latin American market rebounded rapidly. 1. Over 70% of the countries and regions have increased their exports, and the world's top 20 markets have a combined increase of 50%.

 

　　 During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the average annual growth rate of my country's home appliance exports was 8.1%. During this period, the European, American and ASEAN markets grew significantly, while emerging markets such as Africa and Latin America showed little growth. In the first half of 2021, exports to the European, American and ASEAN markets continued to grow at a high rate, while emerging markets began to diverge, and Latin America rebounded rapidly. According to statistics, in the first half of the year, my country's exports of home appliances to 230 countries and regions around the world maintained growth in 174 markets, accounting for more than 70%; exports to 152 countries and regions increased by more than 20%. Exports to the top 20 markets accounted for 73.3% of the total export market share, and total exports increased by 50.1% over the same period last year.

 

　　 2. Exports to European and American markets led the growth.

 

Before the epidemic, loose monetary policies in the European and American markets have begun to boost the sales of the home appliance market. At the same time, due to the lack of substitutability, the Sino-US trade friction and taxation have limited impact on my country's home appliance exports. The average growth rate is among the highest in all regions. The five-year average growth rate of exports to Europe is 10.6% and that to the United States is 9.6%.

 

After the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the demand for homes in Europe and the United States has skyrocketed. Coupled with the successive introduction of local consumption incentive policies, some orders of local production companies have been transferred to China. This has made China's exports to the European and American markets increase compared to the first half of 2020 and the same period in 2019. Significant improvement: In the first half of 2021, China’s exports to the North American and European markets were 14.13 billion U.S. dollars and 15.8 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 62.6% and 53.7% respectively over the same period last year, continuing a high growth trend; compared with the same period in 2019 The export scale also increased by 58% and 51.5% respectively, greatly exceeding the same period in history; the combined share of the two major markets in the first half of the year once again exceeded 50%.

 

But at the same time, we must also note that the risks of trade protection in Europe and the United States still exist; despite the continuous recovery of the market, the consumer confidence index continues to fluctuate and is far from the pre-epidemic level; ocean freight rates remain high, and some European and American orders have begun to choose to return; local Monetary policy is gradually tightening. These factors have laid hidden dangers for exports to the European and American markets in the second half of the year.

 

　　3. The strategic position of the Asian market has gradually become prominent.

 

　　 Thanks to the pull of the East Asian and ASEAN markets, the overall export to the Asian market was US$20.46 billion, an increase of 30% over the same period last year. In the first half of 2021, my country's exports to Japan and South Korea, the two largest markets in Asia, increased by 30.9% and 41.6%, respectively, and exports to ASEAN increased by 39.2%. The reason why the growth rate of East Asia and ASEAN markets was lower than that of Europe and the United States was the higher base last year. In fact, the ASEAN region was the region with the highest average annual growth rate of my country's home appliance exports during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, reaching 12.3%.

 

In the Asian market, my country exported 1.02 billion US dollars of home appliances to India in the first half of the year, an increase of 15.5% over the same period last year. Although it has picked up, the growth rate is much lower than the overall export growth rate of home appliances. It fell out of the top ten markets and ranked behind Vietnam. Located at the 18th place. After the global financial crisis, India once became the sixth largest market for my country’s home appliance exports. In 2018, the Indian government imposed additional tariffs on refrigerators, air conditioners, and washing machine home appliances, and successively introduced technical barriers such as mandatory BIS certification and prohibiting the import of air-conditioning refrigerants. Exports to India have continued to decline.

 

　　 In the first half of 2021, Saudi Arabia was the only market in the major home appliance export market (export value fell by 7.6%). The main reason was that the energy efficiency problem in the Saudi Arabian market was gradually resolved last year. Exports will increase significantly in 2020 and the export base will be relatively high. The UAE, the largest market in the Middle East, grew by 32.4% over the same period last year, and the overall export to Arab League countries increased by 9.6%.

 

　　 With the continuous volatility of Sino-US trade frictions and the full signing of the RCEP agreement, East Asia, ASEAN and South Asia, as key investment countries in the “Belt and Road” initiative, have become increasingly prominent in the strategic significance of my country's home appliance global layout. At present, an industrial belt of vacuum cleaner products has gradually formed in Vietnam, and an industrial base of air conditioners has been formed in Thailand. In India, in order to avoid the impact of tariffs, home appliance companies including Haier, TCL and Midea have invested in building factories. Although the scale of these industrial bases is still large compared with that in China, with the continuous upgrading of domestic industries and the warming of global trade protection, the local industrial chain will gradually improve, imports and exports will grow in both directions, and there is huge potential for growth in investment and trade scale. . In fact, increasing the layout of production capacity along the “Belt and Road” such as ASEAN and appropriate transfer of low-end products are also a key step in the global layout of the industry.

 

　　 4. Exports to Latin America rebounded rapidly.

 

　　 During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, the average compound annual growth rate of my country's exports to Latin America and Africa was 2.1% and 3.9%, respectively, which were historically low. In the first half of 2021, there was a clear contrast between the trends in the two regions, and exports to Latin America rebounded sharply. From January to June, exports were US$4.12 billion, an increase of 75.2% over the same period last year. Among them, exports to Mexico increased by 58.6% over the same period last year, and exports to Brazil, Intellect and Argentina in the three South American markets increased by 79.2%, 151.9% and 105.1% respectively. In contrast, although exports to Africa continued to grow last year, the scale of exports to Africa in the first half of this year was basically the same as last year and the year before, at 3.37 billion U.S. dollars.

 

　　 The growth rate of exports to Oceania is between Europe, America and Asia, with exports of US$1.27 billion, an increase of 44.2% over the same period last year.

 

　　 The role of the epidemic has not diminished, and innovative products continue to grow

 

　　In the first half of 2021, all major categories of home appliances (excluding parts) will have different degrees of growth.

 

　　 Among the major appliances products, only refrigerator products are products driven by the epidemic. In the first half of the year, the export of major appliances was US$15.27 billion, an increase of 26% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was lower than that of other categories.

 

　　 The export growth rate of the epidemic household products, including small kitchen appliances and household appliances, is still leading. In the first half of the year, the export of small kitchen appliances was US$10.18 billion, an increase of 60.6% over the same period last year, and the export of small household appliances was US$7.17 billion, an increase of 66.8% over the first half of last year.

 

As people gradually adapt to the epidemic pattern, consumer travel opportunities have increased, which has also driven the growth of personal care products. Coupled with the decline in exports during the same period last year, the base is low. In the first half of 2021, personal care products exports were 1.98 billion US dollars, compared with the same period last year. An increase of 53.8%.

 

　　 Air purifiers (exports increased by 74% compared to the same period last year) and heaters (exports increased by 66% compared to the same period last year), two major epidemic-related products drove the export of environmental electrical appliances in the first half of the year to 6.78 billion US dollars, an increase of 43.3% compared with the same period last year.

 

　　 Some European and American orders were transferred to China, which stimulated the export growth of kitchen, smoke, stove and hot appliances. In the first half of 2021, exports were 1.16 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 51.3% over the same period last year.

 

　　 1. The export of major home appliances has weakened, and the epidemic products have increased significantly.

 

After the outbreak, the demand for refrigerators and freezers in major home appliances has increased significantly, but the growth rate has slowed into 2021. An increase of 36.5% in the same period last year, the growth rate dropped by nearly 20 percentage points from last year. On the one hand, it was because of the high base in the first half of last year; on the other hand, the export profit of refrigerators and freezers was very thin, and the continuous fluctuation of raw materials and shipping costs prevented some refrigerator companies from exporting.

 

　　 The overall growth rate of air-conditioning products was affected by the reduction in commercial demand. In the first half of the year, 45.15 million units were exported, an increase of 11% over the same period last year. Last year's low base and low inventory drove 11.587 million washing machine exports in the first half of the year, an increase of 24.8% over the same period last year. However, if the two and a half years of 2020 and 2021 are averaged, the export scale will remain the same as in 2019. At present, the export of my country's washing machine products is in the process of upgrading, and the export of large-capacity and high-end drum models still has great potential.

 

In the first half of 2021, the impact of the epidemic's home demand on product exports has not diminished. From a broad perspective, the growth rate of small kitchen appliances and household appliances is still at a high level, including blenders (exports in the first half of the year increased by 61.7% year-on-year), juice Small kitchen appliances such as machines (35.6% year-on-year growth), grills (66.4% year-on-year growth), bread machines (year-on-year growth 59.5%), coffee pots (36.5% year-on-year growth), and electric ovens (68.9% year-on-year growth) Since the second half of last year, there has been a substantial increase all the way, and the growth rate of kitchen waste disposal machines in household appliances (a year-on-year increase of 104.8%) has increased significantly.

 

　　 2. Innovative products continue to grow, and demand rotates in the post-epidemic period.

 

In recent years, innovative products such as handheld wireless rechargeable vacuum cleaners, dishwashers and electric fryer, as well as products that combine anti-bacterial air purifiers, heaters with ultraviolet disinfection and other innovative responses to the epidemic have all stimulated the development of related categories. Export growth. In the first half of the year, vacuum cleaners (up 50.4% year-on-year), dishwashers (up 54.5% year-on-year), electric fryer, etc. (up 66.4% year-on-year), air purifiers (up 74% year-on-year), heaters (up 66% year-on-year), etc. Product growth is still among the top.

 

With the gradual normalization of the epidemic and the gradual increase in the proportion of consumer travel, the market demand for home appliances is showing signs of rotation. The export of personal care and some small household appliances has recovered. In the first half of the year, the export of electric irons (increased by 9.6% year-on-year) has recovered, and dry cleaning Machines (a year-on-year increase of 1380.5%) are due to a low base, and the growth is obvious. Electric hair clippers (a year-on-year increase of 38.9%), hair dryers (a year-on-year increase of 36.8%), razors (a year-on-year increase of 19.2%)) and other hair clippers (a year-on-year increase of 19.2%) Increase of 44.3%) and other personal care products increased significantly.